About

The Stock Augur is about value investing. Finding cheap stocks that can provide satisfactory positive absolute returns.

In Roman times, an Augur was an interpreter of signs or omens foretelling the outcomes of decisions and the will of the Gods. Every investor is a Augur of sorts, where the value of an investment lies in the outcome of the future, rarely its present. Sifting through fundamentals, metrics, narratives, and charts, these are the omens we interpret forecast the future performance of our investments.

We listen to confident predictions, infallible logic, and booming rhetoric and use it to decide how we build and guard the fortunes we have accumulated in our lifetimes. Despite following the most flawless decision processes, the end results can be utter failure, for we live in a probabilistic world, filled with randomness, and unpredictability. Even the best are merely rolling a pair of dice, though admittedly some of our dice are loaded or calibrated a little better than others.

Even with the knowledge of hindsight it’s a challenge to look back and say, I did well, or I did poorly, due to skill, or was it due to chance? In the meantime, this Substack journals some of my fallible thoughts about stocks in a snapshot of time, bound to change as new information presents itself, as I test my skill at finding winners.

Hope you enjoy my writings,

The Stock Augur

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To find out more about the company that provides the tech for this newsletter, visit Substack.com.